Introduction
In an episode of “The Journey Man,” recorded on February 21, 2025, Raoul Pal, a macro investor, hosts Jordi Visser, founder of Visser Labs and a former hedge fund strategist, to discuss AI, cryptocurrency, and macroeconomic trends. Published on February 27, 2025, their conversation examines how these forces are changing economies, societies, and individual lives. Pal focuses on the overlap of macro, crypto, and the exponential age, while Visser brings his experience in derivatives and daily engagement with AI. They explore a world where traditional metrics fail, new economies emerge, and people navigate hope and fear. This essay organizes their discussion into key sections—AI’s economic impact, the speculative economy, crypto’s role, AI in financial markets, and the quantum leap—ending with a conclusion on what this means moving forward.
AI’s Macroeconomic Impact: Changing the Framework
The discussion starts with AI’s effect on economic measurement. Visser argues that GDP, created by Simon Kuznets during the Great Depression for physical production, doesn’t fit a digital economy. It misses efficiency and welfare, a problem Alan Greenspan noted in 1999-2000 when growth went unmeasured. Pal agrees, recalling the wealth of that time not reflected in data. Visser calls GDP statistics unreliable, skewing productivity and challenging economic analysis.
For corporations, AI boosts profit margins, a trend growing since personal computers. Tech giants like the Mag Seven show this, with margins rising as AI advances. Visser points to Meta’s layoffs—5% of its workforce cut despite a $1.5 trillion market cap increase since 2022—as proof of AI reducing labor needs. Middle management jobs shrink, turning corporate ladders into limited “step stools.” Pal suggests this could lead to an “economic singularity,” with 10% GDP growth not benefiting labor, disrupting the labor-capital balance.
Individuals feel this shift as a loss of hope. Visser mentions workers like doctors, burdened by debt, and mid-level employees facing cuts, growing unhappy. Pal ties this to politics: if labor fades, systems must change. AI offers long-term benefits like better health and cheaper energy, but the immediate impact is disruption, untracked by old metrics.
The Speculative Economy: Risk as Necessity
This labor-capital disconnect drives what Pal and Visser call the “speculative economy.” As jobs decline, people turn to memecoins, meme stocks, one-day options, and prediction markets for profit, entertainment, and survival. Pal highlights recent activity on Robinhood and Coinbase, while Visser connects it to GameStop’s rise, now echoed in crypto. Unlike older generations shaped by Depression-era caution, Gen Z and Millennials see finance as a game, accepting losses as part of it.
Visser uses poker as an example: online players, trained by repetition, outplay traditionalists, unfazed by failure. Crypto traders share this mindset, open about losses unlike Vegas gamblers who claim wins. Pal notes gambling isn’t new—penny stocks came before—but its scale and acceptance are. For many, speculation is a response to a system offering few options.
This reflects a generational split. Pal and Visser solved macro puzzles, but today’s youth treat finance as play. Visser’s son, into FanDuel, lacks their scarcity mindset. As AI cuts stable jobs, speculation becomes a lasting trend, mixing need with a search for purpose.
Crypto as a Response: Finding Hope
Crypto emerges as a solution to this uncertainty. Visser’s time in Brazil showed him the fearless attitude of the poor, similar to Silicon Valley’s “fail fast” approach, now amplified by AI. Tools like DeepSeek give 7 billion people, skeptical of governments and banks, a chance to earn and invest in crypto. Small sums—$10 to $100—flow into digital assets, distrusting local systems. Pal sees this as a network effect, with AI pushing crypto adoption.
Domestically, it’s personal. Visser created a Bitcoin reserve for his kids, not just for wealth but to counter fear with hope. At Pal’s Real Vision event, attendees supported this, showing a wider need for optimism. Pal observes more women—post-divorce or career-focused—entering crypto, seeking control over their futures. Visser links this to community: crypto provides connection, unlike corporate life.
Their point is clear: AI’s disruption sends people to crypto, not only for speculation but as a new economic path. Work once defined identity—Visser’s Frisian “fisherman” roots—but AI challenges that, and crypto offers a way forward with meaning.
AI in Financial Markets: Volumes and Efficiency
AI reshapes financial markets too. Visser predicts trading and payment volumes will grow with AI agents, spurred by Stripe’s $1.3 billion Bridge acquisition for stablecoins. Pal sees gains for Robinhood, Coinbase, and decentralized exchanges, handling infinite AI traders like past high-frequency trading boosts. Stablecoins connect traditional finance and crypto, cutting remittance costs (e.g., 6% in Indonesia) and aiding businesses.
Traditional finance struggles. Hedge funds, where Pal and Visser worked, face AI tools like Deep Research, surpassing McKinsey reports. Visser uses it for GDP analysis or AI power studies, skipping banks’ reports. Pal left hedge funds 20 years ago as returns fell (8-12% vs. crypto’s 100-150%). Visser, after his fund closed, chose consulting, using AI to outpace big firms.
Middlemen lose relevance: AI researches and trades directly. This empowers individuals and small entities, weakening legacy institutions, a change both view as certain.
The Quantum Leap: A New Frontier
The conversation shifts to quantum computing. Pal cites Satya Nadella’s Marana chip, doing 10,000 years of compute in one second, expected in 2-3 years, not 15. With self-learning AI, this could lead to artificial superintelligence (ASI), beyond economic shifts to a new reality. Visser questions the timeline—China’s DeepSeek and Google’s claims suggest competition—but sees the potential as immense.
Nadella downplays AGI hype, focusing on GDP impact, aligning with their view: old systems break before ASI arrives. Pal raises hacking concerns (Bitcoin, grids), but Visser argues everything’s at risk if quantum hits, not just crypto. This leap, they agree, defies prediction, setting a transformative 2030 where preparation is key.
2025 Outlook: Stability and Growth
For 2025, Visser expects 3-4% inflation from AI’s power needs (e.g., Elon’s Colossus), complicating tariffs and fiscal moves. Stocks should hold, supported by AI profit margins—Meta’s layoffs as an example—unless major disruptions occur. Bitcoin will likely beat the Mag Seven, with stablecoin volumes and institutional adoption rising. Pal’s “unfuck your future” phrase frames this: crypto and AI are tools for a changing world.
Conclusion: Facing the Shift
Raoul Pal and Jordi Visser’s discussion highlights AI and crypto as forces upending old systems—GDP, jobs, finance—while posing risks and opportunities. AI exposes economic flaws, driving a speculative economy where crypto offers hope. Markets see volume growth and middlemen fade, while quantum computing nears, potentially bringing ASI by 2030. In 2025, inflation and crypto expansion mark a transition, but the bigger change looms.
Their takeaways are practical. People should adopt AI skills and crypto to gain control, as Visser does for his kids and Pal does through his platform. Societies will split—those pushing progress vs. those resisting—where hope may decide outcomes. Pal’s call to “unfuck your future” urges action now, before 2030 alters everything. In this exponential age, adapting is essential: embrace the change or fall behind.